到２１世纪４０年代，中国人口将达到１５×１０８，人均耕地资源占有量将下降到００６ｈｍ２，人均淡水资源占有量将下降到１８００ｍ３，如果仍保持目前的生产污染、资源消费速率和资源利用效率的话，要保持今后５０ａ经济的持续增长并为１５×１０８左右的人口提供不断改善的生存和发展条件是绝对不可能的。我们认为走资源高效利用的路子是比较现实的选择。虽然高效利用农业资源的途径和内容很多，但从国家全局出发，就资源势态的紧迫性和严重性以及增效的潜力来看，中国农业资源高效利用的核心任务是：①以实现耕地资源动态平衡为核心的土地高效利用；②以节水灌溉为核心的水资源高效利用；③以增加农业资源利用效益为核心的农业产业化 By the 1940s, China’s population will reach 15 × 108, the per capita arable land resources will decrease to 006hm2, and fresh water resources per capita will decrease to 1800m3. If the current production pollution, resource consumption rate and resource utilization are still maintained Efficiency, it is absolutely impossible to maintain the continuous economic growth in the next 50 years and provide continuously improved living and development conditions for a population of about 15 × 108. We think that the most efficient use of resources is a realistic choice. Although there are many ways and contents of efficient utilization of agricultural resources, starting from the overall situation of the country, the urgency and severity of the resource situation and the potentials of efficiency increase are the core tasks for the efficient utilization of agricultural resources in China. ① In order to realize the dynamic of cultivated land resources Balanced use of land as the core of efficient use; ② water-saving irrigation as the core of efficient use of water resources; ③ to increase the efficiency of agricultural resources utilization as the core of agricultural industrialization