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资本约束的经济发展效应一直是学术界争论的焦点,在经济增长乏力期,跨境资本“紧箍咒”是否有利于实现经济韧性,这是一个亟待研究的课题。文章基于全球价值链视角,实证考察了32个新兴经济体国家的资本约束政策对实现经济韧性的影响,并解构了全球价值链嵌入的门限效应特征。研究发现,资本约束与全球价值链嵌入的交互项对经济韧性的偏效应并不显著,其原因是受到了价值链分工的双重门槛效应影响。在此门槛效应下,随着全球价值链嵌入度的提高,资本约束对经济韧性的正效应逐步被弱化。当前新兴经济体正面临价值链底端锁定问题,价值链参与度与地位指数均处于低水平,在突围被“俘获”与“压榨”的底端价值链的同时,实现经济可持续发展,资本约束将成为重要发力点。
The economic development effect of capital constraint has always been the focus of academic debate. Whether the cross-border capital “fastening spell ” will be conducive to economic resilience during the period of weak economic growth is an issue to be studied urgently. Based on the perspective of global value chain, this paper empirically examines the impact of capital constraint policies of 32 emerging economies on the realization of economic resilience and deconstructs the threshold effect characteristics embedded in the global value chain. The study finds that the partial effect of interaction terms between capital constraint and global value chain embedding on economic resilience is insignificant, due to the double threshold effect of value chain division of labor. Under this threshold effect, positive effect of capital constraint on economic resilience is gradually weakened with the increase of the embedding degree of global value chain. Currently emerging economies are facing the bottom of the value chain lock, the value chain participation and status index are at a low level, the breakthrough is the “capture” and “squeeze” the bottom of the value chain at the same time, to achieve economic Continued development, capital constraints will become an important force point.