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财政政策影响通货膨胀的机制包括铸币税效应和财富效应,财政制度的结构性变化会影响这两种机制的相对重要程度。本文首先利用单位根方法识别改革开放后通货膨胀和财政制度的结构性变化发生时间,发现1992年和1993年分别发生了财政制度和通货膨胀的结构性变化。这个改变使得分税制前中央政府主导的铸币税效应发挥主要作用,分税制后地方政府主导的财富效应发挥主要作用。本文利用中国省际面板数据和系统GMM方法分析了不同分权模式下政府财政互动对通货膨胀机制的影响。结果是:1994年前,地方政府财政盈余增长率越高,中央政府赤字规模越大,通货膨胀水平越高;1994年后,地方政府财政盈余增长率越低,中央政府盈余规模越大,通货膨胀水平越高。
The mechanism by which fiscal policy affects inflation includes seigniorage and wealth effects, and the structural changes in the fiscal system can affect the relative importance of these two mechanisms. First of all, this paper uses the unit root method to identify the time of structural changes of inflation and fiscal system after the reform and opening up, and finds that the structural changes of the fiscal system and inflation have occurred in 1992 and 1993 respectively. This change has made the main role of the seigniorage-led effect dominated by the former central government before the tax-sharing system, and the wealth effect dominated by local governments after the tax-sharing system has played a major role. In this paper, we use the Chinese provincial panel data and system GMM method to analyze the impact of government fiscal interaction on inflation mechanism in different decentralized modes. The result is that before 1994, the higher the local government’s fiscal surplus growth rate, the larger the central government’s deficit and the higher the level of inflation. After 1994, the lower the local government’s fiscal surplus growth rate, the larger the central government’s surplus, The higher the level of inflation.