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利用中国与212个国家(地区)的双边贸易数据,在经典截面引力模型基础上,基于拟自然实验思想,运用匹配模型探讨自由贸易协定签订对于2008年世界金融危机前后中国双边贸易的促进作用。研究表明:传统模型对自贸协定贸易效应存在高估的问题。此外,在全球经济形势较好的年份,自由贸易协定的促进效应较小,随着世界金融危机的爆发,自贸协定的贸易促进效果显著增强。因此,在当前经济形势下,中国应当加快自由贸易协定的谈判进程,以积极应对各国不断抬头的贸易保护主义,保证我国出口贸易的平稳增长。
Using the bilateral trade data between China and 212 countries, based on the classical cross-sectional gravity model, based on the idea of quasi-natural experiment, this paper uses the matching model to explore the promotion effect of the free trade agreement on China’s bilateral trade before and after the global financial crisis in 2008. The research shows that there is an overestimation of the trade effect of the traditional model on the FTA. In addition, in the years when the global economy is in a good shape, the promotion effect of free trade agreements is small. With the outbreak of the world financial crisis, the trade promotion effect of free trade agreements has been significantly enhanced. Therefore, under the current economic situation, China should speed up the negotiation process of free trade agreements so as to actively respond to the ever-rising trade protectionism in various countries and ensure the steady growth of China’s export trade.