SOME ADVANCES IN CLIMATE WARMING IMPACT RESEARCH IN CHINA SINCE 1990

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Increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will strengthen the natural greenhouse effect, which could lead to global climate warming and more other changes. China is a largely agricultural country with a large size of population and the relative shortages of farming lands and water resources, thus increasing the importance of climate warming for national economy development. Therefore. Chinese government and scientists have paid great attention to the impact-assessment of climate warming on national economy in China, especially during the past 10 years. This presentation will briefly describe some major issues of climate warming impact research on national vegetation, agriculture, forest, water resources, energy use and regional sea level for China, etc.As a result, all climate change scenarios derived by GCMs suggest a substantial change in thecharacteristic natural vegetation types. It is also shown that comparing with the distributionsimulated under thenormal time period 1951-1980 as the present climate, by 2050 large changesin cropping systems would occur almost everywhere in China. Climate warming would lead toincrease cropping diversification and multiplication. Unfortunately, the possible net balancebetween precipitation and evapotranspiration would be negativeand it would lead to reduce thegrain production in China significantly due to enhanced moisture stress in soil. The most evidentinfluence of climate warming on water resources would happen in Huanghe-Huaihe-Haihe Basin andthe water supply-demand deficit would be substantially enhanced in this area. And also, a warmerclimate for China will alter the energy requirement for domestic heating and cooling, that is,reduce energy use for heating in northern China and increase energy consumption for cooling insouthern China.
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