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目的评估2017年11月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果人感染H7N9禽流感可能会出现散发病例。流行性感冒等呼吸道传染病也将出现季节性升高。11月登革热总体疫情将逐渐下降,但海南等热带地区仍存在输入引发本地暴发的风险可能。近期马达加斯加暴发肺鼠疫疫情,不排除病例输入我国的风险,且不排除疫情输入后导致局部小范围传播的可能性,但发生大规模流行的可能性极低。结论预计11月全国总报告事件数和病例数将较10月份有所上升。需重点关注人感染H7N9禽流感、流行性感冒、登革热、鼠疫等传染病以及非职业一氧化碳中毒的公共卫生风险。
Objective To assess the public health emergencies at home and abroad in November 2017 and the need to pay attention to the risk of infectious diseases. Methods According to the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and the monitoring of key infectious diseases, the expert consultation method was adopted to invite experts from provincial (municipalities and autonomous regions) CDC to participate in the assessment through video conferencing. Results Human infection with H7N9 bird flu may occur sporadic cases. Respiratory diseases such as influenza will also have a seasonal increase. The overall epidemic of dengue fever will gradually decline in November, but there is still a risk that the input may trigger a local outbreak in tropical regions such as Hainan. The recent Madagascar outbreak of pneumonic plague outbreak does not rule out the risk of cases into our country, and does not rule out the possibility of transmission of local small-scale transmission, but the possibility of pandemic is extremely low. Conclusions The number of nationally reported incidents and cases in November is expected to rise from October. Special attention should be given to the public health risks of human infection with H7N9 bird flu, influenza, dengue fever and plague and other non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning.