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首次将景气跟踪图方法引入中国经济景气分析中,并从宏观经济和行业分析两个维度对中国经济景气情况进行了分析.景气跟踪图方法基于时钟分析方法,对多个重要的经济时间序列指标的发展、运行进行跟踪,进而分析国民经济运行状态.景气跟踪图方法是一种新的景气分析方法,目前多用于宏观经济分析,作者尝试将其引入到行业分析中.针对直接采用原有景气跟踪图可能存在的问题,作者结合先行指标体系进行景气跟踪图分析,同时提出了基于景气跟踪图的经济持久期分析方法.中国经济的实证结果表明改进的景气跟踪图方法在宏观经济与行业分析中均有非常良好的表现,是现有景气分析方法的很好改进与补充.
This paper introduces the method of economy track graph for the first time into Chinese economic climate analysis and analyzes the economic conditions of China from two aspects of macroeconomics and industry analysis.Based on the method of clock analysis, this paper analyzes several important economic time series indicators Of the development, operation tracking, and then analyze the status of national economy.The boom tracing graph method is a new boom analysis method, currently used for macroeconomic analysis, the author attempts to introduce it into the industry analysis.Aiming at the direct use of the original economy Tracking the possible problems with the author, the author combined with leading indicator system to carry out the analysis of the economic tracing graph, and at the same time put forward the economic persistence analysis method based on the economic tracing graph.The empirical results of China’s economy show that the improved prosperity tracing graph method has great significance in macroeconomics and industry analysis In the very good performance, is a good improvement of the existing business climate analysis and supplement.