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北疆沿天山一带的乌苏、博乐、奎屯、石河子、昌吉等地,冬麦越冬期间常受冻死亡.其受冻死亡主要是分蘖节遭受致死低温袭击所致.分蘖节是冬麦生根长叶的唯一器官,分蘖节处的温度受气温和降水(积雪)的影响,而温度和降水又受大气环流的制约.以往对平均环流特征与温度、降水的关系研究较多,但从冬麦受冻死亡年份直接探讨冬麦越冬同期或前期环流演变特征的不多,而这正是农业生产上急需的,它可使农业气象预报更直观、准确.为此,我们从60年代初即开始研究冬麦越冬同期和前期大气环流的演变规律,并根据4月份的环流特征,对冬麦越冬安全度进行了长期预报,预报准确率为100%.
The northern winter along the Tianshan Mountains along the Wusu, Bole, Kuitun, Shihezi, Changji and other places, winter wheat winter are often subject to cold death.The freezing death is mainly caused by the death of the tillering node death caused by low temperature.Fertilizer is winter wheat rooting The temperature of the only organ and tiller node in the long leaf is influenced by the temperature and precipitation (snow cover), and the temperature and precipitation are restricted by the atmospheric circulation .In the past, there are many studies on the relationship between the average circulation characteristics and temperature and precipitation Winter wheat winter years of cold to directly discuss winter winter over the same period or pre-circulation evolution characteristics of small, and this is the urgent need for agricultural production, which can make agrometeorological forecast more intuitive and accurate .To this end, we from the early 60s That is, started to study the law of winter wheat winter over the same period and the evolution of the general atmospheric circulation, and according to the April circulation characteristics of winter wheat winter overcast safety long-term forecast accuracy of 100% forecast.