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基于泛长江三角洲2002~2012年市域面板数据,并借助面板SDM及空间效应分解方法,对区域城市旅游经济发展及其动力因子的空间效应进行实证分析。结果表明:1区域城市入境和国内旅游发展都存在明显的空间依赖性和空间溢出效应,当邻近城市入境和国内旅游发展水平每提高1%,将促进本城市入境和国内旅游发展水平增加约0.257%和0.312%;2区域城市入境和国内旅游发展各动力因子的空间交互作用也较为明显。旅游资源禀赋、旅游服务设施、旅游交通设施和城市经济发展水平对入境旅游发展具有显著的空间溢出效应,旅游服务设施和城市经济发展水平对国内旅游发展的空间溢出效应也较显著。3保障性因子多为正向溢出,吸引性因子多为负向溢出。前者体现了动力因子的空间模仿效应,后者反映了空间竞争效应。保障性因子和吸引力因子的空间效应强度及作用路径差异推动着区域旅游发展格局不断演进。
Based on the panel data of the urban area from 2002 to 2012 in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta, and by means of the panel SDM and the space effect decomposition method, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the spatial effect of the tourism economic development in the regional cities and their dynamic factors. The results show that there is a significant spatial dependence and spillover effect in the inbound and domestic tourism development of a region. When the levels of inbound and domestic tourism in neighboring cities increase by 1% each, the level of inbound and domestic tourism development in the city will increase by about 0.257 % And 0.312%, respectively. The spatial interaction of the dynamic factors in the inbound and domestic tourism development in the two regions is also obvious. The tourism resource endowment, tourist service facilities, tourism transportation facilities and urban economic development level have significant spillover effect on inbound tourism development. The tourism service facilities and urban economic development level also have significant spillover effects on domestic tourism development. 3 Most of the protection factors are positive overflows, and most of the attraction factors are negative ones. The former embodies the spatial imitation effect of dynamical factor, the latter reflects the space competitive effect. The differences in the spatial intensity and the path of action between the factor of protection and the factor of attraction promote the continuous development of the pattern of regional tourism development.