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论文采用VAR模型对湖南省1978—2013年的相关数据进行实证研究,考察财政支农与城镇化对湖南城乡收入差距的影响。通过脉冲响应分析和方差分解可知:不管从短期还是中长期看,湖南财政支农对缩小城乡收入差距起到了积极作用;而从中长期看,城镇化对缩小湖南省城乡收入差距起负面影响;另外,城乡收入差距本身还受前期城乡收入差距的影响,具有显著自我强化效应。针对以上结论,最后从财政支农和城镇化推进两个方面提出了提高农民收入、缩小城乡收入差距的政策建议。
The paper uses VAR model to carry out an empirical study of the relevant data from 1978 to 2013 in Hunan Province to examine the impact of financial support for agriculture and urbanization on the income gap between urban and rural areas in Hunan. Through impulse response analysis and variance decomposition, it can be seen from the short-term and long-term perspectives that Hunan’s financial support for agriculture has played a positive role in narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas. In the medium and long term, urbanization has a negative impact on narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas in Hunan Province. , Urban-rural income gap itself is also affected by the income gap between urban and rural areas in the early period, with a significant self-reinforcing effect. In the light of the above conclusions, we finally put forward policy suggestions on raising peasants’ income and narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas from the two aspects of financial supporting agriculture and promoting urbanization.