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目的探讨灰色模型在海南省疟疾流行预测及防治效果评价中的应用价值。方法建立GM(1,1)模型。根据1999年~2004年海南省疟疾发病率建立疟疾发病率预测模型,并对2005年海南省疟疾发病情况进行预测,从而对海南省2005年疟疾防治效果进行评价。结果海南省疟疾发病率预测数学模型分别为^Y(t)=135.8807e0.2237(t-1)-64.6007,经拟合检验,模型拟合度好(C=0.2949,P=1.000)。利用本模型对2005年海南省疟疾发病率进行外推,估计2005年海南省疟疾发病率为130.43/10万,实际发病率为52.46/10万,发病率比预计的减少了77.97/10万,降幅达59.78%。结论建立的疟疾发病率预测数学模型拟合度好,2005年疟疾发病率的模型预测值与观察值差异显示海南省2005疟疾防治取得了明显效果。
Objective To explore the application value of gray model in prediction of malaria epidemic and evaluation of control effect in Hainan Province. Methods Establish GM (1,1) model. According to the incidence of malaria in Hainan Province from 1999 to 2004, the prediction model of malaria incidence was established, and the incidence of malaria in Hainan Province was predicted in 2005, so as to evaluate the malaria control effect of Hainan Province in 2005. Results The mathematical model of malaria incidence in Hainan Province was ^ Y (t) = 135.8807e0.2237 (t-1) -64.6007, respectively. The fitness of model was good (C = 0.2949, P = 1.000). Using this model to extrapolate the incidence of malaria in Hainan Province in 2005, it is estimated that the incidence of malaria in Hainan Province in 2005 was 130.43 / lakh, with an actual incidence of 52.46 / lakh, with an incidence rate of 77.97 / lakh lower than estimated. Decline of 59.78%. Conclusion The mathematic model of malaria incidence prediction established by this study is good. The difference between the predicted and observed values of malaria incidence in 2005 shows that malaria control in Hainan Province has achieved remarkable results in 2005.