Based on the hydrodynamic model and the Xinanjiang model, the river stage forecasting model has been proposed. But its performance is not satisfactory as applied to estuary areas. River roughness is a sensitive parameter in the hydrodynamic model, and its value is related to some substantial uncertainties in the tidal river. According to roughness tests, a new method of roughness dynamic correction was developed to improve the performance of the stage model. The method was focused on the usage of observed data for the studied section, and its parameters were analyzed. Nested with the dynamic correction of roughness, the stage model was applied to the tidal reach of the Caoe River. The results demonstrate that the roughness dynamic correction can improve the simulation accuracy of the stage model, and especially has the capacity of reducing the errors at peak stages.