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20世纪80年代以来,相对于发达国家,发展中国家作为一个整体,经济增长呈现出三大特点:经济增速较快,贸易部门扩张较快以及持续的较高通货膨胀。毋庸赘言,贸易扩大有利于经济增长。但是贸易较快的增长如何能够出现在相对严重的持续性通货膨胀条件下?本文认为,可以通过扩展的货币替代模型来对这一问题进行解释。在加入了对于物价水平的适应性预期之后,货币替代模型得出一个结论,货币政策扩张(由通货膨胀上升来表示)使得国内居民部门对外汇的资产偏好加强,并由此推动本币持续贬值;不仅是名义贬值,而且还会有实际贬值;进而,实际汇率贬值改善贸易部门的相对价格条件,促使贸易部门获得“额外”的增长动力。对24个重要发展中经济体1980-2015年的年度数据进行计量检验的结果表明,多数国家的实际汇率贬值程度与国内通货膨胀之间存在显著相关性;三个贸易指标的变动与实际汇率贬值程度之间也存在显著的相关性。但是,本文并不认为持续性实际汇率贬值是发展中国家在过去三十多年中较快贸易增长乃至经济增长的必要和充分条件;发展中经济体在追求持续经济增长的进程中需要更加重视非汇率和非货币政策的领域,而不能刻意追求实际汇率贬值甚至刻意制造持续性的通货膨胀。
Since the 1980s, relative to the developed and developing countries as a whole, the economic growth has shown three major characteristics: rapid economic growth, rapid expansion of the trade sector and sustained high inflation. Needless to say, trade expansion is conducive to economic growth. However, how can the rapid trade growth appear under the condition of relatively serious persistent inflation? This paper argues that this issue can be explained through an extended currency substitution model. After adding the expectation of adaptiveness to the price level, the monetary substitution model concludes that the expansion of monetary policy (as indicated by the rising inflation) has enabled the domestic resident sector to strengthen its asset preference for foreign exchange and thereby promote the continued devaluation of the domestic currency; Not only nominal depreciation but also devaluation in real terms; further, the devaluation of the real exchange rate will improve the relative price conditions in the trading sector, prompting the trading sector to gain “extra” growth momentum. The result of measuring the annual data of 24 major developing economies from 1980 to 2015 shows that there is a significant correlation between the degree of depreciation of real exchange rates in most countries and domestic inflation. The changes of the three trade indicators and the devaluation of the real exchange rate There is also a significant correlation between the degree. However, this article does not consider that persistent devaluation of the real exchange rate is a necessary and sufficient condition for developing countries to have enjoyed faster trade growth and even economic growth over the past three decades. Developing economies need to pay more attention to the process of pursuing sustained economic growth Non-exchange rate and non-monetary policy areas, and can not deliberately pursue the devaluation of the real exchange rate or even deliberately create sustainable inflation.