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我对97年作出了15项预测,它们绝大部分都变成了现实。但其中有些是错误的或至少不完全正确,现在首先让我们看看我那些落空的预言。 96年我说长途通话费会由于解除电信管制而大幅下降,但这种情况并没有发生。有关提案在法院迟迟未获通过,我估计这种情况还会持续数年。 我曾预言97年视频会议以及网络会议会变得非常流行。因为一旦人们认识到在多个屏幕上对话及修改文件会变得多么容易以及这—切只需要很廉价的费用,电子会议便会迅猛增长。但结果证明我是过于乐观,虽然一些公司已经在使用基于Internet的视频会议系统,但它们在1997年并没有被普遍接受。 我曾指出97年人们会认识到普通的PC将能胜任最
I made 15 predictions in 1997 and most of them have become reality. But some of them are wrong or at least not completely correct. Now let us first look at my failing prophecies. In 1996, I said that the long-distance call charges will be substantially reduced due to the deregulation of telecommunications, but this has not happened. The proposal was not approved in the court. I expect that this situation will continue for several years. I once predicted that the 97 video conference and web conference will become very popular. Because once people realize how easy it is to talk and modify documents on multiple screens and this – at a fraction of the cost, electronic conferences will grow rapidly. But the results proved that I was too optimistic. Although some companies are already using Internet-based video conferencing systems, they were not generally accepted in 1997. I have pointed out that in 1997 people will realize that an ordinary PC will be able to handle the most