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随着中国经济和社会的快速发展,木材进口量呈增长态势。本文首先梳理1998年以来中国木材进口的发展现状及特点,随后以2006-2015年木材贸易的季度数据为基础,建立多变量灰色模型M G M(1,2),对原木、锯材,未来进口数量、价格进行预测。预计2020年进口数量将达1.46亿立方米;原木、锯材价格呈现出小幅上涨的趋势,预计2020年平均进口价格分别为213.59美元/立方米和297.34美元/立方米。本文据此提出了相应的政策建议。
With the rapid economic and social development in China, timber imports have been on the rise. Based on the quarterly data of timber trade from 2006 to 2015, a multivariate gray model MGM (1,2) is established to analyze the development status and characteristics of China’s timber imports since 1998, , The price forecast. It is estimated that the volume of imports will reach 146 million cubic meters in 2020; the prices of logs and sawn timber will show a slight upward trend. The average import prices in 2020 are estimated to be 213.59 US dollars / cubic meter and 297.34 US dollars / cubic meter respectively. The paper puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions accordingly.