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应用1982年时间序列辩识了18个二阶的MISO CAR模型,系统输出是河口亚潮频率海平面,系统的输入是河流入注流量、风应力和气压。模型检验后,对1983年亚潮频率海平面进行后报,符合良好。基于模型的频率响应揭示了系统的一些重要特性。计算表明珠江河口测站的水位共振频率在0.025—0.07周/d之间,系统仿真定量地估计了各控制因素对水位影响的相对重要性,频域和时域分析都表明河口水位是一振荡系统。
Eighteen second-order MISO CAR models were identified using the 1982 time series. The system output is the estuarine sub-sea frequency and the input to the system is river inflow, wind stress and air pressure. After the model test, it is in good agreement that the submarine frequency sea level was reported in 1983. Model-based frequency response reveals some important features of the system. The calculation shows that the resonance frequency of the water level at the Pearl River estuary station is between 0.025-0.07 weeks / d. The system simulation quantitatively estimates the relative importance of each control factor to the water level. The frequency and time domain analyzes show that the water level in the estuary is an oscillation system.