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结合一般项目投资风险分析的方法,针对电力工业自身的特点,给出了火电厂投资风险决策的整体框架。对现有的火电厂投资风险决策模型在2方面进行了改进:一是对决策变量的精简,使之更具实用性;二是引入投资组合理论和期望效用理论,使决策过程更加理性化。在收益风险评估阶段,采用蒙特卡罗模拟进行分析;在风险决策阶段,结合投资者风险偏好,综合考虑期望收益和风险,对所有方案进行评价、选择。文中算例能够在较短时间内准确、可靠地求得最优解,并用灵敏度分析表明了投资者的风险态度等因素对决策方案的影响。用该模型和算法还可以对决策者感兴趣的个别方案进行单独的分析评价。
Combined with the general project investment risk analysis method, according to the characteristics of the power industry itself, the overall framework for the decision-making of investment risk in thermal power plants is given. The existing decision-making model of investment risk in thermal power plant has been improved in two aspects: First, the streamlining of decision variables to make it more practical; Second, the introduction of portfolio theory and expected utility theory, to make the decision-making process more rational. In the risk assessment phase, the analysis is carried out by using Monte Carlo simulation. In the risk decision-making stage, all the schemes are evaluated and selected according to the investors’ risk appetite and the expected return and risk. The example in this paper can obtain the optimal solution accurately and reliably in a relatively short period of time, and the sensitivity analysis shows the influence of investors’ risk attitude and other factors on the decision-making scheme. The model and algorithm can also be used to analyze and evaluate individual programs that are of interest to decision-makers.