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地震前兆的研究已经取得了很大的进展,地震前兆的复杂性引起了广泛的关注,对地震预报、有关科学问题和探索途径的研究现状及其前景有各种评价。文章认为由于一些科学问题没有解决,尽管对中缅边境1995年7月孟连7.3级地震作出了成功预报,经验性预报有一定的局限性。文中讨论了广义地震前兆和狭义地震前兆。广义地震前兆包含二类前兆:场兆(“构造前兆”)和源兆(“震源前兆”);而狭义前兆仅指后者。中国大陆展例前兆的系统研究证实了广义地震前兆的存在,然而很难区别构造前兆和震源前兆。因此,作者认为地震前兆研究至今还没有新的突破。须要解决的关键问题之一是,经验性预报应向物理预报发展。这里应该进一步研究一些重要的科学问题,例如地震前兆的研究需要从单个震例前兆的研究过渡到成组地震前兆的研究,从点的时间序列的分析转为前兆场时空动态的研究。笔者选择了华北地区进行试验研究,取得了初步成果。
Great progress has been made in the study of earthquake precursors. The complexity of earthquake precursors has drawn wide attention and various evaluations have been made on the status quo and prospects of earthquake prediction, scientific problems and exploration approaches. The article believes that due to some unsolved scientific problems, the empirical prediction has some limitations despite the successful prediction of the MS 7.3 MLC in July 1995 in the Sino-Burmese border. The paper discusses the generalized earthquake precursors and the special earthquake precursors. Generalized earthquake precursors include two types of precursors: field (“precursor”) and source (“precursor”), while narrowly defined precursor only refers to the latter. Systematic studies of precursor precursors in China show the existence of precursors of generalized earthquakes. However, it is difficult to distinguish between precursor precursors and source precursors. Therefore, the authors do not think there is any new breakthrough in the study of earthquake precursors so far. One of the key issues to be solved is that empirical forecasts should be developed for physical forecasting. Some important scientific issues should be further studied here. For example, the study of earthquake precursors needs to be studied from the study of single precursor precursors to the study of group earthquake precursors, from the analysis of point time series to the study of spatio-temporal dynamics of precursor fields. The author chose North China for experimental research and achieved initial results.