以第5~10届全运会成绩为研究对象,对第十一届全运会我国主要省市区域竞技实力进行了分析。结果显示:1)粤、辽、沪依然三足鼎立,但垄断地位已受到严峻挑战。山东有望对全运会新、老霸主发起强有力的挑战。2)在第十一届全运会上,山东的主要金牌竞争点集中于速度类、耐力类、同场对抗和隔网对抗类项群;速度力量类、准确类、格斗对抗类项群是次要夺金点和主要得牌点;难美类项群是次要得牌点和主要得分点。 Taking the scores of the 5th to 10th National Games as the research object, this paper analyzes the regional competitive power of the major provinces and cities in the 11th National Games. The results show that: 1) Guangdong, Liaoning and Shanghai are still tripartite confrontation, but the monopoly position has been severely challenged. Shandong is expected to launch a strong challenge to the new and old overlord of the National Games. 2) At the 11th National Games, Shandong’s major gold medal competition points focused on the speed category, endurance category, same-field confrontation and net counter-fight categories; speed power category, accurate category and fighting confrontation category were Minor gold medal winners and major winning medals; hardcore category group minor winners and major points.