贝叶斯分析是决策分析的一种重要的方法。针对目前武器装备研制的新形势和新特点,为克服传统统计评估方法的缺点,可以将贝叶斯分析应用于武器装备技术改进方案的决策中。通过充分利用仿真试验收集到的信息对评估结果进行分析,可以降低期望损失,提高决策分析的质量。 Bayesian analysis is an important method of decision analysis. In view of the new situation and new features of the development of weaponry and equipment, Bayesian analysis can be applied to the decision-making of weaponry equipment technology improvement plan in order to overcome the shortcomings of traditional statistical assessment methods. Analyzing the evaluation results by making full use of the information collected in the simulation experiment can reduce the expected loss and improve the quality of decision analysis.