水运货运量预测是水运发展规划与建设的重要组成部分,它对确定未来水运交通基础设施的投资规模、建设规模,制定未来水运发展战略等方面都有着极其重要的影响。本文以新锡澄运河航道为样本,通过有针对性地分析锡澄运河货运构成、货种结构、流量流向比例,以及社会经济与货运量发展的关系,区域未来的货运量生成和分布情况等等,合理预测新锡澄运河未来的货运量,为沿线港口建设规模的确定提供依据。 The forecast of water transport volume is an important part of water transport development planning and construction. It has an extremely important influence on determining the investment scale, construction scale and formulating the future water transport development strategy for the future water transport infrastructure. In this paper, the new Xicheng canal channel is taken as a sample to analyze the relationship between the freight composition, the cargo structure, the proportion of the traffic flow and the relationship between the social economy and the freight volume, the generation and distribution of the freight volume in the future Etc., and reasonably predict the future freight volume of the new Xicheng Canal, providing the basis for determining the size of the port construction along the route.