气候变化对东北地区玉米生产潜力的影响与调控措施模拟——以吉林省为例

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本研究以我国吉林省为例,采用5个典型研究站点1981—2010年的气象观测数据、土壤数据、田间管理资料及玉米产量实测值,应用作物生长模型CERES-Maize对5个不同品种玉米生产潜力进行了模拟,在分析气候因素对生产力影响的基础上,模拟、校准与验证遗传参数,实现应对气候变化、提高作物生产力的调控技术模拟,以期指导作物生产.结果表明:玉米播种-开花、开花-成熟两个生长阶段天数模拟值和单产的模拟值与实际值极为吻合,归一化均方根误差分别为2.96%、3.40%、9.37%,偏离指数范围为-10.6%~15.2%,玉米光温生产潜力模拟值年均为7799.60~12902.83 kg·hm~(-2),每10年下降128.6~880.3 kg·hm~(-2);相关性分析表明,影响该地区玉米光温生产潜力下降的主导因素是气候变化,即玉米生育期内温度升高造成的生长期缩短和太阳辐射总量的显著下降.据此模拟的主要调控技术分别是改良玉米品种的耐热性与推迟玉米播种期.遗传参数调控模拟结果表明,玉米光温生产潜力随品种敏感参数P5(灌浆期特征参数,指吐丝至生理成熟大于8℃的热量时间)值的增大而呈线性增加趋势,P5值每增加10℃·d,玉米光温生产潜力提高154.44~261.10 kg·hm~(-2).推迟玉米播期模拟结果表明,除梅河口外,敦化、辽源站点在玉米播期推迟5 d时,光温生产潜力增幅最大,分别为0.47%、1.32%;桦甸、榆树站点在玉米播期推迟15 d时,光温生产潜力增幅最大,分别为1.10%、4.06%. In this paper, taking Jilin Province as an example, using the data of meteorological observation data, soil data, field management data and the data of maize yield from 1981 to 2010 in five typical research sites, using the crop growth model CERES-Maize, five different varieties of maize The potential is simulated and the genetic parameters are simulated, calibrated and verified based on the analysis of the impact of climatic factors on productivity, and the simulation of regulation and control technology to deal with climate change and improve crop productivity is conducted to guide the crop production.The results show that the sowing-flowering, The simulated values ​​of days and yield of two stages of flowering and maturation fit well with the actual values, and the normalized root mean square errors are 2.96%, 3.40% and 9.37%, respectively. The deviation index ranges from -10.6% to 15.2% The simulation of light and temperature production potential of corn was between 7799.60 and 12902.83 kg · hm -2 a year with a decrease of 128.6-880.3 kg · hm -2 every 10 years. Correlation analysis showed that the simulated light and temperature effects The dominant factor of potential decline is climate change, which means the shortening of growth period and the significant decrease of total solar radiation caused by the temperature increase during the growth period of corn.According to the simulation, the main control technologies are improved jade The heat tolerance of the varieties and postponed maize sowing date.The simulation results of the genetic parameters showed that the potential productivity of light and temperature of maize increased with the increase of the sensitive parameter P5 (characteristic parameters during grain filling, the time of calorie to physiological maturity> 8 ℃) The results showed that with the increase of P5, the potential of light and temperature production increased by 154.44 ~ 261.10 kg · hm -2 for every 10 ℃ · d increase of P5 value.The simulation results of delayed sowing date showed that except for Meihe Estuary, When the sowing date of maize was postponed for 5 days, the potential for light and temperature production increased by 0.47% and 1.32% respectively. When the sowing dates of corn and elm trees were postponed for 15 days, the potential for light and temperature production increased by 1.10% , 4.06%.
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