文章提出了旅游系统市场竞争态(MCF)及市场动态发展模型(MDDM)。该模型不仅可以定量分析旅游市场的现实竞争态特征,对同一系统的不同市场做出定量对比和分类,并揭示每一市场竞争态是不断变化的,且为“瘦狗市场→幼童市场→明星市场→现金牛市场”过程的循环。在此基础上对市场进行趋势预测。应用这一模型,对我国近年入境旅游客流量,在Lotus1,2,3(5.0)软件上进行数据处理,建立各境外客源市场的竞争态,确定各客源地在我国入境旅游业中的市场地位,明确现在和未来市场竞争的优势和劣势,为入境旅游业发展规划提供参考依据。 The paper puts forward the tourism system market competition status (MCF) and the market dynamic development model (MDDM). The model can not only quantitatively analyze the real competition characteristics of the tourism market, but also quantitatively compare and classify the different markets of the same system. It reveals that the competitive state of each market is constantly changing, and is “the lean dog market → the young children market → Star Market → Cash Bull Market ”cycle. On this basis, the trend of the market forecast. Applying this model, the data of inbound tourist flows in China in recent years are processed on Lotus1, 2, 3 (5.0) software to establish the competitive state of all the overseas tourist markets and to determine the origin of each tourist source in China’s inbound tourism Market position, a clear current and future market competition advantages and disadvantages for inbound tourism development planning provide a reference.