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日前,国务院发展研究中心研究员吴敬琏在出席“2008首届全球管理论坛”时表示,中国经济正面临内外双重失衡,如果任其发展,会导致产能过剩、通货紧缩甚至金融系统风险。吴敬琏认为,中国经济内部失衡的表现是过度投资和国内消费不足,投资占GDP的比重从改革开放初期的30%左右不断提高,目前已提升到45%左右;经济外部失衡的表现是国际贸易和国际收支双顺差,外汇储备大量积累。内外失衡的宏观经济表现是货币政策运作空间受限、流动性过剩和资产价格上扬。吴敬琏指出,为
Recently, Wu Jinglian, researcher at the State Council Development Research Center, attended the “2008 First Global Management Forum” and said that China’s economy is facing a double imbalance between inside and outside. If it is allowed to develop, it will lead to overcapacity, deflation and even financial system risks. Wu Jinglian believes that the imbalance in China’s economy is characterized by overinvestment and insufficient domestic consumption. The share of investment in GDP has risen steadily from about 30% in the initial stage of reform and opening up and has now risen to around 45%. The imbalance in the economy is characterized by international trade and The double surplus in the balance of payments and the huge accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. The macroeconomic performance of internal and external imbalances is constrained by the limited space for the operation of monetary policy, excess liquidity and rising asset prices. Wu Jinglian pointed out that