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以陕西省1990—2012年城镇化率和二、三产业年产值时间序列数据为基础,建立反映城镇化和二、三产业发展动态关系的向量自回归模型(VAR);在此基础上,运用单位根检验、协整检验和Granger因果检验,得出陕西省城镇化与二、三产业发展水平之间存在协整以及格林兰因果关系;最后通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析了陕西省城镇化进程与二、三产业发展之间的动态影响,发现陕西省城镇化水平对二、三产业的发展有积极的推动作用,而后者对城镇化的推动还不明显。针对于此:应鼓励二、三产业链向中小城镇的延伸;加大城镇尤其是小城镇的基础设施建设投入改善投资环境;努力增加农民财产性收入促进农村剩余劳动力向二、三产业的转移;以高新技术改造和提升第二产业,凭借区位优势大力发展旅游产业,促进二、三产业的自身发展。
Based on the urbanization rate in 1990-20012 and the time series data of the secondary and tertiary industries in Shaanxi Province from 1990 to 2012, a vector autoregressive model (VAR) reflecting the dynamic relationship between urbanization and secondary and tertiary industries was established. On this basis, Unit root test, cointegration test and Granger causality test. It is concluded that there is cointegration and Greenland causality between urbanization and secondary and tertiary industries in Shaanxi Province. Finally, the urbanization of Shaanxi Province is analyzed by impulse response function and variance decomposition It is found that the level of urbanization in Shaanxi Province plays a positive role in promoting the development of the secondary and tertiary industries, while the latter is not obvious for the promotion of urbanization. To this end, the extension of secondary and tertiary industry chains to small and medium-sized towns should be encouraged. Investment in infrastructure construction should be increased in cities and towns, especially in small towns, and the investment environment should be improved. Efforts should be made to increase peasants’ property income and promote the transfer of rural surplus labor to secondary and tertiary industries ; To transform and upgrade the secondary industry with new and high technology, vigorously develop the tourism industry by virtue of its geographical location and promote the self-development of the secondary and tertiary industries.