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我国政府投资结构的调整和优化决定了其在新常态下对经济增长的影响效力和可持续性。本文通过构建基于投资的中国宏观经济模型,对政府投资进行历史模拟、预测和反历史模拟,并以持续的地方政府投资为例,分析政府投资的有效性、投资结构的合理性以及对通货膨胀和就业的影响。进而从理论和实证上检验政府投资的效力,并为政府投资结构调整提供现实依据。结论表明:政府投资短期内显著拉动经济增长、提高通货膨胀率,但对就业和居民消费的作用有限;早期政府投资在医疗、教育和自主创新上投入较少,创新性行业拉动不足,其结构并不合理;新常态下的政府投资通过引入市场机制,有效优化投资结构;政府投资存在闲置资金进入虚拟经济的现象,具有导致房地产、资产泡沫的可能性。
The adjustment and optimization of the structure of government investment in our country determines its effectiveness and sustainability in economic growth under the new normal. This paper builds the Chinese macroeconomic model based on investment, historical simulation, forecasting and anti-historical simulation of government investment. Taking continuous local government investment as an example, this paper analyzes the effectiveness of government investment, the rationality of investment structure, And the impact of employment. Then it tests the validity of government investment theoretically and empirically and provides a realistic basis for the government investment structure adjustment. The conclusion shows that government investment can significantly stimulate economic growth and increase inflation in the short term, but its effect on employment and household consumption is limited. Early government investment in healthcare, education and independent innovation is less and innovation-oriented industries are less driven. Its structure Which is not reasonable. Government investment under the new normal can effectively optimize the investment structure through the introduction of market mechanisms. There is a phenomenon that government funds invest idle capital into the virtual economy, which has the potential to cause real estate and asset bubbles.