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近期新兴市场国家的实践经验表明,运用准备金制度实施逆周期的宏观审慎监管,能够有效缓解货币政策调控经济中遇到的尴尬。基于VAR模型的中国实证分析表明,提高准备金要求在降低信贷增长率,增加贷款利率、同业拆借利率以及6个月贷存利率差的同时,短期内并没有造成GDP增长率的迅速下降。当提高准备金要求对GDP增长率的负面影响开始显现时,信贷增长率又开始回升,阻止了GDP增长率的进一步下跌。这说明运用准备金制度进行逆周期调控没有出现信贷供给与实体经济相互加强的顺周期性问题,准备金制度是非常有效的宏观审慎监管逆周期调控工具。
The recent experience in emerging market countries shows that the implementation of a reverse macro-prudential regulation of the reserve fund system can effectively ease the embarrassment of monetary policy in regulating and controlling the economy. China’s empirical analysis based on the VAR model shows that raising the reserve requirement has not caused the rapid decline of GDP growth rate in the short term while reducing the credit growth rate, increasing the lending rate, inter-bank lending rate and 6-month loan deposit interest rate difference. When the negative impact of the RRR increase on GDP growth started to show up, credit growth started to pick up again, preventing a further drop in GDP growth. This shows that the use of the reserve system for counter-cyclical regulation of credit supply and the real economy do not appear to escalate the problem of procyclicality, the reserve system is a very effective counter-cyclical macro-prudential regulation and control tools.