中国是全球最大的商品消费国,此轮由供给原因所导致的油价暴跌,毫无疑问会给中国带来油价红利。中国收到的油价红利和总体商品红利到底有多大?本文分不同情形进行测算,认为更接近现实情况的估计也许是,这几年石油之外商品红利的真实规模可能是估计结果的三分之一到一半。2015年真实商品红利规模也许在2014年中国GDP的0.5%~1%之间。 China is the world’s largest consumer of goods. The plunge in oil prices caused by this supply round will undoubtedly bring oil dividends to China. Estimates of China’s oil dividends and general merchandise dividends, which are received in different circumstances, may be more realistic. Estimates may be that in recent years, the true scale of the dividend for commodities other than oil may be one-third of the estimated result One to half. The real product dividend in 2015 may be between 0.5% and 1% of China’s GDP in 2014.