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一、经贸发展趋势 90年代拉美经济将持续稳定增长,预计全地区国内生产总值的年增率可达4—5％。实现这一目标的关键是必须把全地区的固定资产投资总额占国内生产总值的比重提高到一个新水平。据测算,如果要使拉美地区国内生产总值年增5％,该地区每年的储蓄总额必须达到750—850亿美元。当然,如此巨额资金单靠拉美各国的内部积累是根本无法办到的。即使在外债减少,国际贸易条件改善和劳动生产率提高的情况下,每年至少仍需吸收100亿到150亿美元的外资才能达到这一目标。从目前拉美地区的内部条件和外部条件看有许多有利因素可以确保这目标的实现。
I. Economic and Trade Development Trends Latin American economies will continue to grow steadily in the 1990s, and the annual GDP growth rate of the entire region is expected to reach 4-5%. The key to achieving this objective is to raise the total fixed asset investment in the entire region to a new level in the share of GDP. It is estimated that if the gross domestic product of Latin America is to have an annual increase of 5%, the total annual savings in the region must reach 75-850 billion U.S. dollars. Of course, such a huge sum of money can not be achieved by internal accumulation alone in Latin American countries. Even with the reduction of external debt, the improvement of the terms of international trade and the improvement of labor productivity, at least a year still needs to absorb 10 billion to 15 billion U.S. dollars of foreign investment to achieve this goal. There are many positive factors that can be attributed to the current internal conditions and external conditions in Latin America to ensure this goal is achieved.