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本文在前人关于川滇地区“应力窗口”研究的基础上,给出川滇地区四个主要“应力窗口”及其预报指标,试图可比预测川滇地区一年左右(M≥5.0)地震,并且对其“窗口”的构造背景及机理进行初步讨论。作者初步认为,在寻找“应力窗口”及预报地震时,应考虑其区域应力场或力源的变化,因“应力敏感点”有可能随之变化。在时间上不是永久不变的,具有一定时间性。如果进一步研究以上问题,对提高地震预报水平有重要的意义。
Based on the previous research on “stress window” in Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces, this paper presents four main “stress windows” and their prediction indices in Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces, and tries to predict the earthquakes about one year (M≥5.0) in Sichuan-Yunnan region comparably The structure and background of its “window” are discussed preliminarily. The author initially believes that in the search for “stress window” and forecast earthquake, should consider the changes in regional stress field or force source, because “stress sensitive point” is likely to change. Not permanent in time, with a certain time. If we further study the above problems, it is of great significance to improve the level of earthquake prediction.