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技术进步与结构调整是减少二氧化碳排放的两个重要途径。与现有多数文献采用指数分解法通过因素分解的方式间接测算碳排放的影响因素不同,本文采用1998—2013年中国36个工业行业面板数据,使用环境效应分解模型与拉氏指数和帕氏指数直接测算法,实证分析了技术进步与结构调整在中国工业碳减排中的作用。研究表明:技术进步在中国工业碳减排中起主导作用,结构调整的贡献较小;环境效应分解模型为代表的指数分解法高估了技术效应、低估了结构效应在中国工业碳减排过程中的贡献;与“节能减排”政策实施以前相比,技术效应与结构效应的减排效果尤为显著。研究认为,政府实施碳减排政策的过程中,应在继续充分发挥技术进步积极效应的同时,更加注重释放结构调整效应对碳减排的积极作用,实现经济增长与环境质量改善并举的可持续发展。
Technological progress and structural adjustment are two important ways to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Different from the existing literature that most of the literature use exponential factorization to indirectly measure the influence factors of carbon emissions through factor decomposition, this paper uses panel data of 36 industries in China from 1998 to 2013, using environmental effect decomposition model and Laplace index and Paasche index Direct measurement method, the paper empirically analyzes the role of technological progress and structural adjustment in industrial carbon emission reduction in China. The results show that: technological progress plays a leading role in China’s industrial carbon emission reduction and its contribution to structural adjustment is small; the exponential decomposition represented by the environmental effect decomposition model overestimates the technical effect and underestimates the effect of structural effect on China’s industrial carbon emission reduction In comparison with before the implementation of the “Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction” policy, the emission reduction effect of technology effect and structure effect is particularly significant. The study shows that while implementing the carbon emission reduction policy, the government should give full play to the positive effects of technological progress and pay more attention to releasing the positive effect of structural adjustment on carbon emission reduction so as to achieve sustainable growth of both economic growth and environmental quality. development of.