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基于IGT方程分析了1995—2014年中国有色金属总量、铜、铝、锌、铅、镍及锡资源消耗的宏观规律,计算了有色金属总量及各金属的年脱钩指数和五年平均脱钩指数,分析了资源消耗与经济增长脱钩发展的规律。研究表明:有色金属总量、铜、铝资源消耗整体上呈拟指数递增函数增长,锌和镍资源消耗近似呈线性等速增长,铅和镍资源则出现明显拐点,呈先加速增长后减量降低的发展规律;有色金属资源总量消耗在“九五”及“十五”期间未实现脱钩,而在“十一五”至“十二五”后期实现了相对脱钩,其平均脱钩指数分别为-0.33、-0.27、0.58及0.59;在持续的经济增长下,实现有色金属资源的脱钩发展,应对资源消耗总量进行宏观调控,并着力提高有色金属的资源效率。
Based on the IGT equation, the macroscopic rules of total nonferrous metals, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel and tin in China from 1995 to 2014 were analyzed. The total nonferrous metals and annual decoupling index of each metal were calculated and decoupled from the average of five years Index, analyzed the law of decoupling between resource consumption and economic growth. The results show that the total consumption of non-ferrous metals, copper and aluminum resources increase exponentially as a whole, the consumption of zinc and nickel increases approximately linearly and equitably, while the lead and nickel resources show a significant turning point, The total consumption of non-ferrous metal resources has not been decoupled during the “95” and “15” periods, but has been realized in the later period of “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” to “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” Relative decoupling, the average decoupling index was -0.33, -0.27,0.58 and 0.59 respectively; under the continuous economic growth, to achieve the decoupling development of non-ferrous metal resources, the total amount of resource consumption should be macro-control, and strive to improve non-ferrous metal resources effectiveness.