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目前中国经济正处于“三期叠加”的特定阶段,我们既要持之以恒地推动经济结构战略性调整,又要能尽快找到未来的经济增长动力。对此,笔者认为在探讨动力方面原有的分析框架,即认为拉动中国经济增长的“三驾马车”是投资、消费、出口,经过实践证明该框架并不能从根本上解决中国的中长期经济增长问题。而一些学者提出的依靠全要素生产率的提高作为新的分析框架的观点,虽然有一定道理,但也还没有能够抓住经济增长的决定性因素。因此,本文从唯物史观出发,提出经济增长就是一个自然增长过程,核心是人的能力发展,它所依赖的是劳动力的自然增长、劳动者技能的增长和社会对不同行业部门间劳动分布比例关系所进行的调节,这才是真正的动力源泉。在这一观点的基础上,对中国未来经济增长的具体实现路径提出了对策建议。
At present, the Chinese economy is at a specific stage of “three superpositions.” We must not only promote the strategic readjustment of the economic structure but also find the driving force for economic growth in the future as soon as possible. In this regard, I believe that in the analysis of the original power of the analytical framework, that is driving the Chinese economy, “Troika” is the investment, consumption, exports, proven by practice that the framework does not fundamentally solve the problem in China Long-term economic growth. However, some scholars put forward the view that relying on the improvement of total factor productivity as a new analytical framework, although there is some truth, but there is still no decisive factor that can seize economic growth. Therefore, starting from the historical materialism, this paper proposes that economic growth is a natural growth process. The core is the development of human capabilities. It relies on the natural growth of labor force, the growth of workers’ skills, and the social distribution of labor among different industry sectors The adjustment of the relationship, this is the real source of power. On the basis of this view, we put forward countermeasures and suggestions for the concrete realization of China’s future economic growth.