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时间尺度的选择是水稻与气候关系研究中的关键环节。为评价中短时灾害情景下的水稻气候适宜性,本文以辽宁省1961-2010年逐日气温、日照时数为影响因子,结合气候产量采用通径分析方法确定各因子权重,进而构建水稻气候适宜度日尺度模型及不同气候区的适宜度等级评价指标。通过与旬尺度模型对比,阐明不同时间尺度模型在中短时灾害天气影响下的气候适宜度状况。结果表明:(1)气候适宜度日尺度评价模型能够反映水稻生长的气候条件及对其生长发育的影响,水稻营养生长阶段的气候适宜度与株高的相关系数(R)为0.722(P<0.01);生殖生长阶段的气候适宜度与水稻产量的相关系数(R)为0.669(P<0.01);(2)根据气候适宜度评价指标确定水稻气候适宜度等级,揭示在突发洪涝灾害的情况下,日尺度比旬尺度模型更能诠释水稻生长的气候适宜度状况。
The selection of time scales is a key link in the research on the relationship between rice and climate. In order to evaluate the climatic suitability of rice under short-term and catastrophic disaster scenarios, this paper takes the daily temperature and sunshine hours of Liaoning Province from 1961 to 2010 as the influential factors, and uses the path analysis method to determine the weight of each factor in combination with the climate yield, Degree-day scale model and different climatic zones suitability level evaluation index. By comparing with the ten-day scale model, the climate suitability of different time-scale models under short-term and mid-term disastrous weather is clarified. The results showed that: (1) The climate suitability day-scale evaluation model can reflect the climatic conditions of rice growth and its impact on the growth and development. The correlation coefficient (R) between climatic suitability and plant height at rice vegetative growth stage was 0.722 (P < 0.01). The correlation coefficient (R) between climatic suitability and rice yield in reproductive growth stage was 0.669 (P <0.01). (2) The climatic suitability grade of rice was determined according to the evaluation index of climate suitability, In this case, the daily scale can better explain the climate suitability of rice growth than the ten-yard scale model.