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本文详细介绍了笔者所建议的运用模糊图理论和方法进行城市输水管网的地震可靠性分析途径和计算程序。对于输水管网中每段管道的震害预测,建立了相应的专家系统。在此基础上,定义了管网系统的模糊可靠性,更好地反映了人们对于管道损坏状态估计的模糊性和对可靠性要求上的模糊性。以模糊矩阵来描述输水管网的状态是十分方便的。通过计算模糊矩阵的传递闭包,极易找出最短路、关键段等。由于地震作用和管道抗震能力都是随机的,因此整个管网系统的可靠性分析是藉助Monle Carlo法进行的。以Monle Carlo法对模糊图进行分析,从而得到管网的地震可靠性,这还是首次。用PASCAL和PROLOG编制了在微机上实用的计算机程序,特别是以智能语言PROLOG编制的程序,更有许多特色。由于采用了一些技巧,使在微机上可以分析相当大的系统,为城市抗震防灾工作提供了一个有力的工具。
This paper introduces in detail the methods and methods of seismic reliability analysis of urban water distribution network proposed by the author. For the earthquake damage prediction of each pipe in the water distribution network, a corresponding expert system is established. On this basis, the fuzzy reliability of the pipe network system is defined, which better reflects the fuzziness of the pipe damage status estimation and the fuzziness to the reliability requirements. To fuzzy matrix to describe the status of the water pipe network is very convenient. By calculating the transfer matrix of the fuzzy matrix, it is easy to find the shortest path, the key section and so on. Due to the random nature of the seismic action and the seismic capacity of the pipeline, the reliability analysis of the entire pipe network system is based on the Monle Carlo method. For the first time, the Monle Carlo method is used to analyze the fuzzy map to get the seismic reliability of the pipe network. Use PASCAL and PROLOG compiled on the computer practical computer programs, especially in the language of PROLOG programming, many more features. Due to the use of a number of techniques to enable the analysis of a relatively large system on a microcomputer, it provides a powerful tool for urban earthquake disaster prevention.