我国经济增长与通货膨胀的关系研究——基于产出缺口的实证分析

来源 :中国物价 | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:antoney
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
随着我国经济下行压力凸显,GDP增速平稳下滑,对我国经济增长、通货膨胀以及产出缺口的研究应当得到重视。本文首先依据新古典增长模型构建了用以解释经济增长与通货膨胀之间动态关系的总供给模型,且辅助以产出缺口解释两者之间的相互联系。使用1978年至2014年我国经济数据实证检验表明:经济增长率与通货膨胀率存在正相关关系,高的经济增长率依赖于当期的高的通货膨胀率以及上一期对当期通货膨胀率的预期。实际产出超过潜在产出水平使得通货膨胀率上升且能够促进经济增长率的提高。 With the stress of the downward pressure on our economy and the steady decline of GDP growth, the research on our country’s economic growth, inflation and output gap should be given priority. Based on the neoclassical growth model, this paper constructs a total supply model to explain the dynamic relationship between economic growth and inflation and helps to explain the interrelationship between the two by using the output gap. The empirical test of China’s economic data from 1978 to 2014 shows that there is a positive correlation between the rate of economic growth and the rate of inflation. The high rate of economic growth depends on the current high rate of inflation and the expected rate of inflation in the current period . The fact that real output exceeds potential output levels causes inflation to rise and can boost the rate of economic growth.
其他文献