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提出了一种新的城市交通站点负荷的动态预测模型.该模型克服传统的Markov链方法的不足,考虑到乘客转移偏好的动态改变以及各交通站点之间的滞留情况会相互影响,以此构建了雪灾情形下乘客分布的极大熵模型,并进一步设计了交通站点负荷率的计算方法,推演出了雪灾后交通站点负荷的动态变化情况,为相关部门采取应对措施提供参考依据.最后用一个预测实例比较该方法与传统的Markov链方法的预测结果,结果表明该方法更优.
A new dynamic forecasting model of urban traffic site load is proposed.The model overcomes the shortcomings of the traditional Markov chain method and constructs the model by taking into account the dynamic changes of passenger transfer preferences and the stranded situation among traffic stations The maximum entropy model of passenger distribution under snowstorm conditions was established and the calculation method of traffic load ratio was further designed to deduce the dynamic changes of traffic load after a snowstorm so as to provide reference for relevant departments to take countermeasures.At last, The prediction example compares the prediction results of this method with those of the traditional Markov chain method. The result shows that this method is better.