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本文采用更新后的数据和修正的数据处理方法,分别对我国服务贸易、出口和进口与GDP之间以及服务出口和进口之间的因果关系、长期均衡关系和短期变动关系采用格兰杰因果检验方法、协整分析和误差修正模型进行了计量分析。发现:我国服务贸易和服务出口分别对GDP有单向促进的因果关系和长期均衡关系;我国服务出口和进口之间则存在双向促进的因果关系和长期均衡关系;GDP对服务贸易和对服务出口,以及服务进口对出口的短期偏离有向长期均衡回归的趋势。
In this paper, Granger causality test is applied to the causal relationship, long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term change between China’s service trade, export and import and GDP as well as service export and import, respectively, using updated data and revised data processing methods. Method, cointegration analysis and error correction model were measured and analyzed. It is found that: China’s service trade and service exports respectively have one-way causality and long-term equilibrium relationship with GDP; there is a two-way causal relationship and long-term equilibrium relationship between service export and import in China; , As well as the tendency of the long-term equilibrium return of service imports to exports in the short run.