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地震发生以后及时掌握人员伤亡情况对灾后救援具有重要作用,因此,建立地震人员伤亡预测模型是极为重要的。以2008年汶川地震人员伤亡数据及房屋破坏面积数据为基础,运用线性回归分析方法模拟出地震人员伤亡预测模型。该函数模型是以建筑物的易损性为自变量,分别以死亡人数、受伤人数为因变量构建的。同时对回归模型进行误差分析,并参考前人模型可知房屋内人口密度和地震发生时间2个因素对模型有很大影响,进而对回归系数进行调整。最后利用文中模型和其他几种预测模型分别对汶川地震和玉树地震进行验证,并与地震实际伤亡结果进行比较,证明研究的模型的准确性和适用性。
It is very important to establish the prediction model of the earthquake casualty after timely grasp of the casualties after the earthquake. Based on the data of 2008 Wenchuan earthquake casualties and the area of house destruction, linear regression analysis was used to simulate the earthquake casualty prediction model. The function model is based on the vulnerability of the building as an independent variable, respectively, the number of deaths, the number of injuries as the dependent variable. At the same time, the regression analysis of the error model, and reference to the previous model shows that the housing population density and time of occurrence of the earthquake two factors have a great impact on the model, and then adjust the regression coefficient. At last, the textual model and several other prediction models are respectively used to verify the Wenchuan earthquake and Yushu earthquake, and compared with the actual earthquake casualty results to prove the accuracy and applicability of the model.