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对基于案例知识的系统安全风险模型进行了研究。首先,建立了系统安全事件案例知识表达模型。其次,研究了系统知识表达的不确定性问题,以及安全风险决策者的决策类型对度量不确定性的需求;基于现有安全风险模型对不确定性度量能力的欠缺,提出了基于案例知识的系统安全风险概念模型,用损失可能性、损失程度和损失的不确定性来表征系统安全风险。在此基础上,研究了该安全风险模型的建模方法,并举例证明了该模型的有效性。最后,对机长飞行安全风险进行了研究,选取机长年龄、累计飞行小时以及近90天飞行小时3个指标作为风险因子,应用本文所建基于案例知识的系统安全风险模型,评估了机长飞行安全风险,评估结果合理,可为民航放飞决策提供参考。
The system security risk model based on case knowledge is studied. First of all, a case knowledge representation model of system security incident is established. Secondly, we study the uncertainty of system knowledge expression and the need of decision-making type of security risk for measurement uncertainty. Based on the lack of uncertainty measurement capability of existing security risk model, The system security risk conceptual model characterizes the system security risk with the possibility of loss, degree of loss and uncertainty of loss. Based on this, the modeling method of the security risk model is studied, and the effectiveness of the model is illustrated. Finally, the flight safety risk of captain is studied. Taking the captain’s age, accumulated flight hours and flight hours of nearly 90 days as the risk factors, the system security risk model based on case knowledge is used to evaluate the safety of the captain Flight safety risk, the evaluation result is reasonable, which can provide a reference for decision-making of civil aviation flight.