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在哥本哈根世界气候变化大会上,我国向世界承诺2020年单位国内生产总值的二氧化碳排放量比2005年下降40%～45%。本文在对已有研究成果进行系统梳理的基础上,分析了影响我国碳排放的主要因素,核算了主要减排途径的碳减排潜力,提出了至2020年我国发展低碳经济的基本框架。研究发现,碳排放强度与产业结构演化之间存在倒U字形曲线关系,发展模式转变和产业结构调整取得实质性成效是实现2020年减排目标的前提。此外,工业技术节能、建筑节能和道路交通节能也还都有一定的潜力。在不同情景下,工业技术节能对实现2020年减排目标的贡献程度在12%～14%之间,建筑节能和增加非化石能源规模分别可以起到10%左右的贡献,道路交通节能的贡献率在2%～3%之间。
At the World Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, China promised to the world that its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP in 2020 will be 40% -45% lower than in 2005. Based on the systematic review of existing research results, this paper analyzes the main factors that affect China’s carbon emissions, calculates the carbon emission reduction potential of the major emission reduction channels and puts forward the basic framework for developing low-carbon economy in China by 2020. The study found that there exists an inverted U-shaped curve between the intensity of carbon emission and the evolution of industrial structure. The transformation of development mode and the substantive effect of industrial restructuring are the preconditions for achieving the 2020 emission reduction target. In addition, industrial technology, energy saving, building energy efficiency and road traffic saving also have some potential. Under different scenarios, the contribution of energy saving in industrial technology to achieving the 2020 emission reduction target is between 12% and 14%, building energy saving and increasing non-fossil energy resources contributes about 10% respectively, and the contribution of road traffic energy conservation Rate of 2% to 3%.