随着能源需求的不断增长,能源保障体系的管理不当使得城市环境污染越加严重,特别是以火电为主的传统电力生产结构,其煤炭的消耗造成了大气环境的巨大压力。如今,节能减排已经成为了全国民生关注的焦点,如何缓解能源与环境的矛盾更是全球共同努力解决的问题。为此,以国家“十二五”规划的节能减排思想为核心,提出了能源保障绿色风险的新概念,以便通过风险预警的作用为能源部门的决策提供一定的科学依据,从而在环境损失发生前能够采取规避措施。以大连市为例,通过分析大连能流图识别出能源保障绿色风险因子,并利用层次分析法和基准调整的数据处理方法形成风险量化模型,进一步对其进行量化与排序,得到风险事件处理的优先级顺序。结果表明,绿色能源供应水平和可吸入颗粒物浓度对大连市能源保障绿色风险的影响程度最大。大连市应以此为重点,在国家大战略的指导下加快发展核电和天然气,以达到节能减排的最终目的。 With the continuous increase of energy demand, the improper management of energy security system has made urban environmental pollution more serious, especially the traditional electricity production structure mainly based on thermal power. The consumption of coal has caused great pressure on the atmospheric environment. Today, energy-saving emission reduction has become the focus of people’s livelihood throughout the country, how to ease the contradiction between energy and the environment is the world work together to solve the problem. Therefore, taking the idea of ​​energy saving and emission reduction as the core of the national “Twelfth Five-Year” plan, a new concept of energy security green risk is put forward so as to provide a scientific basis for decision-making of the energy sector through risk warning, Environmental damage can be taken to avoid the situation before. Taking Dalian as an example, this paper identifies the green risk factor of energy security by analyzing Dalian energy flow chart, and forms the quantitative model of risk by using AHP and datum adjustment data processing methods to further quantify and rank the green risk factors and get the risk event processing Priority order. The results show that the level of green energy supply and the concentration of respirable particulate matter have the greatest impact on the green risk of energy security in Dalian. Dalian City should take this as its focal point and speed up the development of nuclear power and natural gas under the guidance of the national grand strategy in order to achieve the ultimate goal of energy conservation and emission reduction.