按照灰色理论和参数辨识方式,建立了一个预测农业用水量的灰色模型GM(1,1),运用残差检验与后验差检验两种方法对模型进行精度检验,其模型拟合精度达99%。用所建立的模型预测某灌区2004~2008年农业用水量,结果与当地实际情况比较吻合。该灰色模型的通用性好,所需数据少,计算量适中。 According to the gray theory and parameter identification method, a gray model GM (1,1) for predicting agricultural water consumption was established. The accuracy of the model was tested by using the residual test and the posterior difference test, and the model fitting accuracy was 99 %. Using the established model to predict the agricultural water consumption in a certain irrigation area from 2004 to 2008, the result is in good agreement with the actual situation in the area. The gray model has good universality, less required data and moderate amount of calculation.