BEATING EXPECTATIONS

来源 :Beijing Review | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:jingcheng0417
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
  As the escalating trade war between China and the United States casts a shadow over the world’s two largest economies and the global economy at large, the much-anticipated Chinese economic figures for the first half of the year have offered some certainty of China’s economic resilience and sustainability amid mounting instability worldwide.
  The Chinese economy expanded 6.8 percent year on year in the first half of 2018, beating market expectations. The rate was 6.7 percent for the second quarter, edging down 0.1 of a percentage point from the first, with the growth rate within the 6.7-6.9-percent range for 12 consecutive quarters, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on July 16.
  NBS spokesperson Mao Shengyong said at a press briefing that the data showed the country’s economic growth remained stable with good momentum.
  “Positive factors underpinning high-quality growth are accumulating, laying a solid foundation for achieving the growth target for the whole year,” Mao said. China has set its annual GDP growth target at around 6.5 percent for 2018.
  However, external pressures are mounting, and domestic structural adjustment has now reached a critical stage. China should actively boost domestic demand, invigorate the real economy, cope with external challenges and prevent and defuse risks, Mao said.
  On July 16, the International Monetary Fund(IMF) predicted China’s economy to grow 6.6 percent in 2018, unchanged from its April forecast. “China continues to grow in line with our earlier projections,” a statement from the IMF said.
  Looking ahead, the Chinese economy will continue the trend of seeking progress amid stability, with the target of 6.5 percent for 2018 as a whole achievable, Xu Hongcai, deputy chief economist of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, told Beijing Review.
  “The growth rate is likely to come in around 6.7 percent for 2018, 6.6 percent for 2019 and 6.5 percent for 2020,” Xu said, adding that at this rate, the goal of doubling China’s economy and the per-capita income of its residents from 2010 to 2020 will be accomplished.
  Consumption-driven
  According to Mao, during the first six months, an optimized economic structure has been reflected in a stronger service sector, the acceleration of industrial upgrading, progress in innovation and green development, and most importantly robust consumption.
  The service sector is booming, having contributed 60.5 percent to GDP growth in the first six months, up 1.4 percentage points from the same period last year. The industrial output of hi-tech, equipment manufacturing and strategic emerging industries increased by 11.6 percent, 9.2 percent and 8.7 percent respectively, each surpassing the growth of overall industrial output.   Supply-side structural reform is also yielding positive results. In the first half of the year, industrial capacity utilization reached a new high of 76.7 percent, up 0.3 of a percentage point from the same period in 2017. More so-called“zombie enterprises”—poorly performing com- panies reliant on government support—were shut down, with low-end production eliminated from the market.
  The job market was generally stable, with the surveyed urban unemployment rate staying at 4.8 percent throughout June and May, the lowest since 2016. In the first five months, some 6.13 million urban jobs were added, surpassing the figure for the same period in 2017 and making achievable this year’s target of creating 13 million jobs.
  In recent years, the upgrading of China’s consumption has been accelerating. Growth in the retail sale of consumer goods has surpassed that of fixed assets investment for 26 consecutive months, evidence of the increasing role of consumption in the Chinese economy.
  Domestic consumption has been the ballast for growth, its contribution to GDP growth as high as 78.5 percent in the first half of 2018, up 14.2 percentage points from a year ago, according to the NBS.
  During this period, the retail sale of consumer goods increased by 9.4 percent year on year, with online retail sales surging by more than 30 percent.
  “Judging from major economic indicators, domestic demand has become a decisive force of growth in China,” Mao said, predicting that the stable and sustained growth of consumption will continue into the second half of the year.
  Several factors will support steady consumption growth in China. “Residential income has been increasing more quickly and deeper pockets facilitate more spending,” Mao said.“More importantly, the Chinese economy has developed to the stage that consumption upgrading will only speed up, not slow down.”
  In addition, China’s cuts to import tariffs will spur more domestic consumption and better satiate people’s demand for a higher quality of life, he said.
  Xu said that boosting domestic demand is a long-term objective for China.
  “The first step is to add more jobs via, for example, the creation of a more favorable business environment for small and micro-sized businesses and those related to agriculture. With a stable income, people are more willing to spend,” Xu told Beijing Review. “In addition, the social security system needs to be improved so that people are more willing to part with their money rather than constantly saving, and taxation policies should be further reformed to increase people’s sense of gain.”   In June, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, China’s top legislature, began reviewing a draft amendment to the Individual Income Tax Law as part of efforts toward the more even redistribution of income. The draft amendment proposed raising the threshold for personal income tax from 3,500 yuan ($519.3) to 5,000 yuan ($741.9) per month, or 60,000 yuan($8,902.8) per year.
  “Some people think that the 5,000-yuan threshold is appropriate because anyone with a monthly salary of 5,000 yuan is rich. This is unrealistic. I strongly suggest raising the threshold to 10,000 yuan ($1,483.8),” Xu said, adding that taxation policies should be adjusted to help rein in China’s growing wealth disparity.
  Trade uncertainties
  China’s trade spat with the United States has raised uncertainty about the country’s eco- nomic outlook and roiled its financial markets in recent weeks.


  The United States began imposing additional 25-percent tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese products on July 6, igniting the largest trade war in economic history. China was forced to respond in kind, imposing the same tariffs on an equal amount of U.S. products. International observers warn that a trade war could deal a heavy blow to both countries as well as the global economy.
  According to the World Economic Outlook, a report released by the IMF on July 16, a global growth rate of just 3.9 percent is predicted for this year and the next. “But the risk that current trade tensions escalate further—with adverse effects on confidence, asset prices, and investment—is the greatest near-term threat to global growth,” an IMF statement said.


  “After nearly 10 years of adjustment, the world economy is finally starting to bottom out, entering a phase of recovery and robust growth,” Chen Wenling, chief economist of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said. “However, escalating trade tensions could impede recovery, with U.S. unilateral action destroying international trading rules, global industrial and value chains, systems of global governance and Sino-U.S. relations.”
  NBS spokesperson Mao said that the impact of the trade war is not reflected in China’s first-half data.
  “We will have to wait to see the impact in coming months. But generally speaking, the war will have a negative effect on both economies. Moreover, the world economy today is so integrated that almost every industrial chain is global in layout. Many countries will be affected, as will global economic recovery and the sustained growth of trade,” Mao said.
其他文献
Giant panda Long Long and her 13-day-old cub at the Chimelong Safari Park in Guangzhou, capital of south China’s Guangdong Province, on July 25. Long Long, the fi rst giant panda born in Guangdong in
期刊
Wang Shouwen, Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce and Deputy China International Trade Representative, was the focus of attention at the headquarters of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in Geneva, Swi
期刊
Leaders of the European Union (EU) must have been shocked to hear that they topped U.S. President Donald Trump’s hit list after he was asked during a CBS News interview to name his “biggest foe global
期刊
Sometimes, rules are there to be broken and for government leaders, there is no exception. During a meeting between visiting Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov in S
期刊
America First was U.S. President Donald Trump’s slogan during his election campaign back in 2016, with many U.S. citizens voting for the Republican candidate precisely because this populist concept ap
期刊
An aerial photo taken on July 14 shows the Three Gorges Dam discharging water to brace for possible floods during the rainy season. Located on the Yangtze River near Yichang City in central China’s Hu
期刊
Touching on a series of topics related to eco-civilization, the Eco Forum Global Annual Conference was held in Guiyang, capital of southwest China’s Guizhou Province, from July 6 to 8.  Under the them
期刊
In an event that attracted worldwide atten- tion, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held their first official meeting in Helsinki, Finland, on July 16. The two leaders p
期刊
Women of the Yao ethnic group present traditional clothing in Longji Township in Guilin, south China’s Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, on July 18, celebrating the Clothes Drying Festival. The annual
期刊
Although there are many causes triggering the trade disputes between China and the United States, the main reason is still the huge and chronic U.S. trade deficit with China, which has long vexed the
期刊