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2011年上半年,国内外大豆价格相对平稳,下半年总体呈现冲高回落态势,且国际市场大豆价格波动幅度明显大于国产大豆。通过对影响大豆价格走势的影响因素分析,认为目前国际大豆市场仍处于调整趋势中,价格有进一步下探的可能,但随着外围利空因素的逐渐消化,大豆市场自身供需趋紧的基本面将再次受到关注,国际市场大豆价格很可能呈现先抑后扬的走势;国产大豆价格在此拉动下,也有望稳步走高,但国内油料供应充裕将限制其上涨幅度。
In the first half of 2011, domestic and international soybean prices were relatively stable, with an overall trend of setting off and then falling in the second half of the year. The price fluctuation of soybean in the international market was obviously larger than that of domestic soybean. Through the analysis of the influencing factors on the soybean price trend, it is believed that the current international soybean market is still in the trend of adjustment, and the price may drop further. However, with the gradual digestion of unfavorable external factors, the fundamentals of tightening soybean supply and demand will be Once again concerned about the international market, soybean prices are likely to show the trend of Xianyihouyang; domestic soybean prices in this pull, is also expected to steadily higher, but ample domestic oil supplies will limit the rate of increase.