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中国经济增长三十多年的旧常态以高投资驱动的高增长为特点,然而支撑该模式的劳动力、投资、效率等因素开始减退,因而已经变得不可持续。未来中国经济将不可避免地从高速增长转入中高速甚至中速增长。对这种必然发生的减速只能适应,不应再试图用强刺激拉动GDP的数量增长,而应当着力提高经济增长的质量。也就是说,要优化结构、提高效率,防止减速过快,并使民众能够在中高速或中速增长中得到更多的实惠。为此,要靠全面地推进改革,而且也只有通过改革才能提高经济增长质量和效率,使经济进入希望达到的新常态。
The old normal of more than three decades of economic growth in China characterized by high investment-driven high growth. However, the factors such as labor, investment and efficiency that underpin this model have started to decline and have therefore become unsustainable. In the future, China’s economy will inevitably shift from high-speed growth to medium-speed and even medium-speed growth. We should only adapt to this kind of inevitable deceleration. We should not try to stimulate the quantity growth of GDP with strong stimulus. Instead, we should focus on improving the quality of economic growth. In other words, to optimize the structure, improve efficiency, prevent excessive deceleration, and enable people to get more benefits in medium-speed or medium-speed growth. For this reason, we must rely on the comprehensive promotion of reforms and only by reform can the quality and efficiency of economic growth be enhanced so that the economy can enter the new normal that it hopes to achieve.