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区域蒸散量(evapotranspiration)预测对精准灌溉预报与农田水分管理意义重大。该文利用川中丘陵区11个气象站点1961-2013年逐日气象资料,采用FAO-56 Penman-Monteith公式计算参考作物蒸散量(reference evapotranspiration,ET0),基于Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3(HadCM3)的输出和统计降尺度模型(statistical downscaling model,SDSM)分别对A2(高温室气体排放)、B2(低温室气体排放)情景下川中丘陵区2014-2099年ET0进行预测,并使用Mann-Kendall检验和反距离加权插值法对1961-2099年ET0的时空演变特征进行分析。结果表明:基准期(1961-2010年)川中丘陵区ET0整体呈现明显下降趋势,空间上呈现出东北部、西北部和东南部相对较大、中部相对较小的差异;与基准期相比,A2、B2情景下未来2020 s(2011-2040年)、2050 s(2041-2070年)和2080 s(2071-2099年)川中丘陵区ET_0月和年均值都呈增大趋势;A2情景下3个时期ET0将分别增加7.9%、10.9%和16.7%,B2情景下ET_0将分别增加7.1%、4.9%和12.8%;A2、B2情景下3个时期川中丘陵区ET_0空间分布均呈现西北部和南部较大、中部较小的空间差异,且3个时期的ET0相对变化率显示中部及其偏北、偏南区域ET_0增幅相对较大,北部和南部增幅相对较小。因此,未来川中丘陵区ET0的上升可能导致水资源短缺与季节性干旱进一步加剧。该研究可为川中丘陵区水资源优化管理和灌溉制度制定提供科学参考。
Predicting evapotranspiration is of major importance for precision irrigation forecasting and cropland water management. Based on the daily meteorological data of 11 meteorological stations in the Central Sichuan Basin in 1961-2013, the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) was calculated using the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith formula and the output based on Hadley Center Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3) And statistical downscaling model (SDSM) were used to predict the ET0 in the Huanghuaguan hilly region from 2014 to 2099 under A2 (high greenhouse gas emission) and B2 (low greenhouse gas emission) scenarios respectively. The Mann-Kendall test and the inverse The distance-weighted interpolation method is used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of ET0 from 1961 to 2099. The results showed that the ET0 in the hilly area of Central Sichuan Province showed a significant downward trend during the reference period (1961-2010), showing a relatively large difference in northeast, northwest and southeast in space and relatively small in the middle. Compared with the reference period, A2 and B2 in the next 2020 s (2011-2040), 2050 s (2041-2070) and 2080 s (2071-2099) in the Huanzhong hilly ET_0 month and the average annual growth rate was significantly improved; A2 scenario 3 ET0 will increase by 7.9%, 10.9% and 16.7% respectively in this period, ET_0 will increase by 7.1%, 4.9% and 12.8% respectively in B2 scenario; in the A2 and B2 scenarios, The larger the southern part and the smaller part of the middle part. The relative change rates of ET0 in the three periods show that the ET0 in the central part and the northerly part of the region are relatively larger, while the amplitude of the ET0 in the southern part is relatively larger, while that in the northern part and the southern part is relatively smaller. Therefore, the rise of ET0 in the hilly area of Central Sichuan in the future may lead to the further shortage of water resources and seasonal drought. This research can provide scientific reference for the optimization of water resources management and irrigation system in Hilly Area of Central China.