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自20世纪90年代以来,我国奶业快速发展。但一系列宏微观影响因素经常会导致牛奶生产和价格剧烈波动,甚至对我国奶业产生致命打击,特别是经常发生的“倒奶事件”、“杀奶牛事件”等,直接影响着我国奶业生产的稳定和牛奶市场的均衡供应。采用1995-2013年我国牛奶产量、牛奶价格、饲料价格和规模化率数据,运用Nerlove模型对牛奶供给反应进行研究。研究结果如下:滞后两期牛奶产量和滞后一期饲料价格对本期牛奶产量有着负影响,滞后一期牛奶产量、滞后一期牛奶价格和规模化率对本期牛奶产量有着正影响;牛奶的短期弹性为0.104 0,短期内缺乏弹性,长期弹性为2.126 8,长期内富有弹性,表明牛奶供给对价格的反应存在滞后性。因此,政府应该提升规模化水平,扶持饲料企业发展和扩大优质饲料的种植面积,保持奶业价格政策的持续、稳定性,引导奶产业构建更加紧密的、合理的利益分配关系。
Since the 90s of 20th century, the dairy industry in our country has developed rapidly. However, a series of macroscopic and microcosmic influencing factors often cause violent fluctuations in milk production and prices and even a fatal blow to China’s dairy industry. In particular, the frequent occurrence of “pour milk events” and “cows kill events” have a direct impact China’s stable dairy production and the milk market, a balanced supply. Based on the data of China’s milk production, milk price, feed price and scale-up rate from 1995 to 2013, the Nerlove model was used to study the milk supply response. The results of the study are as follows: Delayed two-phase milk production and lagged One-phase feed prices have a negative impact on the current milk production, lagging first-phase milk production, lagging first-phase milk price and scale-up rate have a positive impact on current milk production; Short-term elasticity of 0.104 0, short-term lack of flexibility, long-term elasticity of 2.126 8, long-term flexible, indicating the milk supply lags in the price response. Therefore, the government should raise the scale, support feed enterprises to develop and expand the planting area of high-quality feed, maintain the sustainability and stability of the dairy price policy, and guide the dairy industry to build closer and reasonable distribution of benefits.