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经济周期国际协同是中国对外开放过程中的重要经济现象。本文考察了1960-2007年间中国与27个主要贸易伙伴国经济周期协同性的发展变化,发现中国与发展中国家,尤其与亚洲国家周期协同性在增强,而与发达国家周期协同性在减弱。协同性指标和Granger检验进一步证实中国与样本国经济周期协同性具有群体差异性特征,聚类分析可以把27个样本国划分为主动高协同亚洲国家、被动高协同发展中国家、中协同发达国家、低协同发达国家等四个特征明显的类别。
International cooperation in the economic cycle is an important economic phenomenon in the process of China’s opening to the outside world. This paper examines the development and changes in the synergy of the economic cycles between China and its 27 major trading partners over the period 1960-2007 and finds that the periodic synergies between China and other developing countries, especially those in Asia, are on the rise and the periodic synergies with the developed countries are weakening. Collaborative indicators and Granger test further confirmed that the synergy of economic cycle between China and sample countries has the characteristics of group differences. Cluster analysis can divide 27 sample countries into active high coordinated Asian countries, passive high coordinated developing countries, medium coordinated developed countries , Low synergy developed countries and other four obvious characteristics of the category.