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荒漠草原是气候变化影响的脆弱和敏感地区.荒漠草原的牧户主要依赖天然草原维持生计,正面临着严峻的气候变化挑战.本文采用问卷调查的实证分析方法,在获取内蒙古苏尼特右旗荒漠草原牧户对气候变化和极端气候事件感知和适应的第一手资料基础上,分析了荒漠草原牧户对气候变化趋势和极端气候事件感知和适应的现状与行为特征.结果表明:在降水稀少、气象灾害频繁发生的荒漠草原,干旱是影响范围最广、影响程度最深、发生频率最高的极端气候事件;牧户不仅对干旱的敏感度远高于其他极端气候事件,而且对大风、沙尘暴和大雪等极端气候事件的深刻感知伴随着对干旱的感知而产生;相对于长期气候变化的感知,牧户对短期气候变化趋势的感知更深刻、准确,并主要依据近10年气候变化的感知结果来判断较长期气候变化的总体趋势;牧户认为,气候变化在很大程度上影响了牲畜健康和草场产量,但牧户应对气候变化的行为相对单一,且多为自发性被动适应,缺乏行之有效的主动适应.
The desert grassland is a vulnerable and sensitive area affected by climate change.The herd households in the desert steppe are mainly dependent on the natural grassland for their livelihood and are facing the severe climate change challenge.This paper adopts the empirical analysis method of the questionnaire, Based on the first-hand information on the perception and adaptation of climate change and extreme climate events in desert steppe herd households, the status quo and behavioral characteristics of desert steppe herders on climate change trends and extreme climate events were analyzed.The results showed that: Rare and meteorological disasters occur frequently in desert steppe. Drought is the most extensive and influential extreme climate event with the highest frequency of occurrence. The herd sensitivity not only to drought is much higher than other extreme climate events, but also to the gale, sandstorm And heavy snow are accompanied by the perception of drought. Relative to the perception of long-term climate change, pastoralists’ perceptions of short-term climate change trends are more profound and accurate and are mainly based on the perception of climate change in the past 10 years The results to determine the overall trend of longer-term climate change; herders that climate change To a large extent affected the health of livestock and pasture yields, but relatively simple herdsman behavior to address climate change, and mostly spontaneous passive adaptation, lack of effective initiative to adapt.